Goldman says AI is no bubble, but investors pick winners

Kim Posnett, co-head of investment banking at Goldman Sachs, spoke at the WTF Summit of The Information. She says she is “hugely bullish” on AI, but investors are more careful as the cost of capital goes up. Posnett says investors move to firms that make frontier models, software and AI chips. She says AI projects will not give the planned returns if rates stay high for a long time.

Where money moves

Posnett says this is not a change in feeling about AI. She calls it a “repositioning and differentiation” across the AI trade. Investors prefer firms that own the full chain, from chips to models.

The numbers

Posnett gave no numbers. Other reports give some. Bloomberg cites Census data that show AI spending leads business investment in 2026. Reuters says AI drove the increase in core capital goods. Citi Wealth says the AI growth is not complete.

What is not known

Large firms such as Nvidia fund their own suppliers and customers. Posnett says this makes more ties and more risk. She says the two are correct. A Bloomberg economist says some firms connect their plans to the US midterm elections and to US Federal Reserve policy.

Insight: The bank on AI deals tells investors to be selective

This week, Goldman has large roles in three deals. They are SpaceX financing for graphics chips, a Meta stock offering and an Anthropic first sale of shares. In a Gartner poll, only 13% of firms report large AI returns, but 75% of CEOs plan more technology spending. This reads as two tracks: money stays open for a small number of large builders, while buyers must prove returns. Tell vendors to show their funding.